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NFL power rankings by the PlayDecoded model

2026 season. Teams are ordered by the model's current team-strength rating.

How the rating is computed

The PlayDecoded model already has a team-strength input: Elo. These rankings use each team's latest Elo for the season, the same number that feeds the factor-model win probability. Home advantage is left out, so the order is a neutral-site comparison. A team with no rating yet starts at 1500, the model default. Week-to-week movement compares this week's rank to a stored snapshot from the previous week; until that snapshot exists the change column is an em dash. Season accuracy grades the last pre-kickoff factor-model assessment on each team's finished games, using the same rules as the accuracy page (preseason and exhibition excluded; ties left out of the rate). See remaining strength of schedule for the average rating of each team's remaining opponents.

RankTeamRatingChangeRecordSeason accuracy
1
Seahawks logo
Seattle Seahawks
1661.0—3-375.0% (3/4)
2
Bills logo
Buffalo Bills
1631.2—5-150.0% (2/4)
3
Vikings logo
Minnesota Vikings
1601.6—5-066.7% (2/3)
4
Broncos logo
Denver Broncos
1597.6—4-275.0% (3/4)
5
49ers logo
San Francisco 49ers
1596.3—6-075.0% (3/4)
6
Patriots logo
New England Patriots
1585.3—4-360.0% (3/5)
7
Eagles logo
Philadelphia Eagles
1582.3—2-475.0% (3/4)
8
Jaguars logo
Jacksonville Jaguars
1568.5—4-250.0% (2/4)
9
Rams logo
Los Angeles Rams
1561.4—2-425.0% (1/4)
10
Lions logo
Detroit Lions
1544.0—3-233.3% (1/3)
11
Texans logo
Houston Texans
1540.5—2-40.0% (0/4)
12
Ravens logo
Baltimore Ravens
1535.3—4-250.0% (2/4)
13
Chiefs logo
Kansas City Chiefs
1534.1—5-0100.0% (3/3)
14
Bears logo
Chicago Bears
1530.9—5-260.0% (3/5)
15
Packers logo
Green Bay Packers
1528.9—4-250.0% (2/4)
16
Bengals logo
Cincinnati Bengals
1526.7—3-233.3% (1/3)
17
Steelers logo
Pittsburgh Steelers
1516.7—4-225.0% (1/4)
18
Chargers logo
Los Angeles Chargers
1478.4—0-6100.0% (4/4)
19
Saints logo
New Orleans Saints
1460.7—2-475.0% (3/4)
20
Cowboys logo
Dallas Cowboys
1459.7—2-40.0% (0/4)
21
Panthers logo
Carolina Panthers
1453.0—3-266.7% (2/3)
22
Buccaneers logo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1442.5—1-525.0% (1/4)
23
Colts logo
Indianapolis Colts
1430.5—2-40.0% (0/4)
24
Commanders logo
Washington Commanders
1424.3—1-4-166.7% (2/3)
25
Browns logo
Cleveland Browns
1421.7—4-275.0% (3/4)
26
Falcons logo
Atlanta Falcons
1416.8—2-475.0% (3/4)
27
Raiders logo
Las Vegas Raiders
1414.9—3-3100.0% (4/4)
28
Giants logo
New York Giants
1413.5—3-2-133.3% (1/3)
29
Cardinals logo
Arizona Cardinals
1412.3—2-475.0% (3/4)
30
Dolphins logo
Miami Dolphins
1408.2—0-5100.0% (3/3)
31
Jets logo
New York Jets
1403.1—2-425.0% (1/4)
32
Titans logo
Tennessee Titans
1318.1—1-525.0% (1/4)