NFL power rankings by the PlayDecoded model
2026 season. Teams are ordered by the model's current team-strength rating.
How the rating is computed
The PlayDecoded model already has a team-strength input: Elo. These rankings use each team's latest Elo for the season, the same number that feeds the factor-model win probability. Home advantage is left out, so the order is a neutral-site comparison. A team with no rating yet starts at 1500, the model default. Week-to-week movement compares this week's rank to a stored snapshot from the previous week; until that snapshot exists the change column is an em dash. Season accuracy grades the last pre-kickoff factor-model assessment on each team's finished games, using the same rules as the accuracy page (preseason and exhibition excluded; ties left out of the rate). See remaining strength of schedule for the average rating of each team's remaining opponents.
| Rank | Team | Rating | Change | Record | Season accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1661.0 | — | 3-3 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 2 | 1631.2 | — | 5-1 | 50.0% (2/4) | |
| 3 | 1601.6 | — | 5-0 | 66.7% (2/3) | |
| 4 | 1597.6 | — | 4-2 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 5 | 1596.3 | — | 6-0 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 6 | 1585.3 | — | 4-3 | 60.0% (3/5) | |
| 7 | 1582.3 | — | 2-4 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 8 | 1568.5 | — | 4-2 | 50.0% (2/4) | |
| 9 | 1561.4 | — | 2-4 | 25.0% (1/4) | |
| 10 | 1544.0 | — | 3-2 | 33.3% (1/3) | |
| 11 | 1540.5 | — | 2-4 | 0.0% (0/4) | |
| 12 | 1535.3 | — | 4-2 | 50.0% (2/4) | |
| 13 | 1534.1 | — | 5-0 | 100.0% (3/3) | |
| 14 | 1530.9 | — | 5-2 | 60.0% (3/5) | |
| 15 | 1528.9 | — | 4-2 | 50.0% (2/4) | |
| 16 | 1526.7 | — | 3-2 | 33.3% (1/3) | |
| 17 | 1516.7 | — | 4-2 | 25.0% (1/4) | |
| 18 | 1478.4 | — | 0-6 | 100.0% (4/4) | |
| 19 | 1460.7 | — | 2-4 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 20 | 1459.7 | — | 2-4 | 0.0% (0/4) | |
| 21 | 1453.0 | — | 3-2 | 66.7% (2/3) | |
| 22 | 1442.5 | — | 1-5 | 25.0% (1/4) | |
| 23 | 1430.5 | — | 2-4 | 0.0% (0/4) | |
| 24 | 1424.3 | — | 1-4-1 | 66.7% (2/3) | |
| 25 | 1421.7 | — | 4-2 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 26 | 1416.8 | — | 2-4 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 27 | 1414.9 | — | 3-3 | 100.0% (4/4) | |
| 28 | 1413.5 | — | 3-2-1 | 33.3% (1/3) | |
| 29 | 1412.3 | — | 2-4 | 75.0% (3/4) | |
| 30 | 1408.2 | — | 0-5 | 100.0% (3/3) | |
| 31 | 1403.1 | — | 2-4 | 25.0% (1/4) | |
| 32 | 1318.1 | — | 1-5 | 25.0% (1/4) |