Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers 86% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (114.6 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (41-26) in better form than Mavericks (22-45)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 70% (−16)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 75% (−11)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 79% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 81% (−5)
Win probability movement
CLE home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mavericks defeated the Cavaliers 130-120.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 86% confidence, but the Mavericks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers defense (114.6 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers (41-26) in better form than Mavericks (22-45)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mavericks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.1 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (114.6 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (118.0 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (41-26) in better form than Mavericks (22-45)
Turnover Differential
Cavaliers turnover differential (+0) vs Mavericks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mavericks
Cavaliers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cavaliers has a 86% win probability, while Mavericks has a 14% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rocket Arena in Cleveland, OH.