Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Offensive Efficiency. Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Grizzlies are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Grizzlies (23-41) in better form than Mavericks (21-44)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 55% (−10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 60% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 65% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MEM 62% (−3)
Win probability movement
MEM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mavericks defeated the Grizzlies 120-112.
Our model predicted the Grizzlies would win with 65% confidence, but the Mavericks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a notable factor: Grizzlies offense (115.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Grizzlies and was a notable factor: Grizzlies are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Mavericks and was a contributing factor: Mavericks defense (117.8 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mavericks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Recent FormFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mavericks
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 65% win probability, while Mavericks has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.