Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks
Cleveland Cavaliers 80% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (117.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (40-26) in better form than Mavericks (21-44)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 60% (−20)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 68% (−12)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 71% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 78% (−2)
Win probability movement
DAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cavaliers defeated the Mavericks 138-105.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 80% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (117.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers (40-26) in better form than Mavericks (21-44)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cavaliers won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (114.8 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (117.8 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (40-26) in better form than Mavericks (21-44)
Turnover Differential
Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cavaliers
Mavericks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Mavericks has a 20% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 80% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.