Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks
Orlando Magic 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Magic:
- Offensive Efficiency. Magic offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (115.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Magic (33-28) in better form than Bucks (26-35)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 51% (−14)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ORL 57% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ORL 65% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ORL 59% (−6)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Magic defeated the Bucks 130-91.
Our model predicted the Magic would win with 65% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a contributing factor: Magic defense (114.3 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (115.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Magic won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Recent FormFavors Orlando Magic
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Magic
Bucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bucks has a 35% win probability, while Magic has a 65% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.