Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Bucks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Bucks defense (115.9 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Bucks (27-38) in better form than Pacers (15-52)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIL 57% (−14)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIL 65% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MIL 66% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIL 69% (−2)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bucks defeated the Pacers 134-123.
Our model predicted the Bucks would win with 71% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Bucks and was a major factor: Bucks defense (115.9 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Bucks and was a contributing factor: Bucks (27-38) in better form than Pacers (15-52)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bucks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Bucks defense (115.9 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.7 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Bucks (27-38) in better form than Pacers (15-52)
Offensive Efficiency
Similar offensive efficiency (111.0 vs 111.3 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Bucks turnover differential (+0) vs Pacers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pacers
Bucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bucks has a 71% win probability, while Pacers has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.