Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers vs Phoenix Suns head-to-head
Phoenix Suns 74% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.9 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Suns (38-27) in better form than Pacers (15-50)
- Offensive Efficiency. Suns offense (112.1 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.4 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 53% (−21)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PHX 65% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHX 73% (−1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 68% (−6)
Win probability movement
IND home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Pacers 123-108.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 74% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.9 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Suns and was a notable factor: Suns (38-27) in better form than Pacers (15-50)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pacers and was a notable factor: Pacers are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Indiana Pacers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Pacers (119.9 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Suns (38-27) in better form than Pacers (15-50)
Offensive Efficiency
Suns offense (112.1 PPG) outpaces Pacers (111.4 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pacers turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Pacers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pacers has a 26% win probability, while Suns has a 74% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN.