Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.6 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (50-15) in better form than Nuggets (39-25)
- Home Field Advantage. Thunder are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 55% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 76% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 69% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 69% (−7)
Win probability movement
OKC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Nuggets 129-126.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 76% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder defense (107.6 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets offense (120.2 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.9 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Thunder (50-15) in better form than Nuggets (39-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (107.6 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.4 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.2 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.9 PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (50-15) in better form than Nuggets (39-25)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nuggets
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 76% win probability, while Nuggets has a 24% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.