Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
Detroit Pistons 70% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.9 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (48-18) in better form than Raptors (37-29)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 55% (−15)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 60% (−10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 70% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 63% (−7)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Pistons 119-108.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 70% confidence, but the Raptors won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.4 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.9 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.4 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.9 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (48-18) in better form than Raptors (37-29)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Pistons (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pistons
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 30% win probability, while Pistons has a 70% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.