Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Raptors:
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Raptors offense (113.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.3 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 53% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 53% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 59% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Suns 122-115.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a contributing factor: Raptors offense (113.5 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.9 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 57% win probability, while Suns has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.