Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Offensive Efficiency. Nuggets offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 71% (+17)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 36% (−18)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 50% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DEN 54% (0)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nuggets defeated the Rockets 129-93.
Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.6 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a major factor: Nuggets offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nuggets won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.6 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.6 PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Nuggets (39-26) vs Rockets (39-24)
Turnover Differential
Nuggets turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rockets
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 54% win probability, while Rockets has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.