Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
Indiana Pacers 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pacers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pacers defense (120.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Pacers offense (111.4 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.6 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: IND 55% (+4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: IND 47% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: IND 48% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: IND 50% (−1)
Win probability movement
SAC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kings defeated the Pacers 114-109.
Our model predicted the Pacers would win with 51% confidence, but the Kings won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Kings and was a notable factor: Kings are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pacers and was a contributing factor: Pacers defense (120.0 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pacers and was a contributing factor: Pacers offense (111.4 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kings won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Sacramento Kings
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Indiana Pacers
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pacers
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 49% win probability, while Pacers has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA.