Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks
Phoenix Suns 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (115.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Suns offense (112.1 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.1 PPG)
- Recent Form. Suns (37-27) in better form than Bucks (27-36)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 51% (−17)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHX 68% (0)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 62% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PHX 62% (−6)
Win probability movement
MIL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Bucks 129-114.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (115.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bucks and was a notable factor: Bucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns offense (112.1 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.1 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormFavors Phoenix Suns
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.0 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (115.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Suns offense (112.1 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.1 PPG)
Recent Form
Suns (37-27) in better form than Bucks (27-36)
Turnover Differential
Bucks turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Bucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bucks has a 32% win probability, while Suns has a 68% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.