Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (118.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Recent Form. Timberwolves (40-26) in better form than Warriors (32-33)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 44% (−12)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 57% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 57% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MIN 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
GSW home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Warriors 127-117.
Our model predicted the Timberwolves would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a notable factor: Timberwolves offense (118.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors defense (114.2 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (115.1 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Golden State Warriors
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Recent FormFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Timberwolves
Warriors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Warriors has a 45% win probability, while Timberwolves has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.