San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs 82% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (111.6 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (115.5 PPG)
- Recent Form. Spurs (48-17) in better form than Pelicans (21-45)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 62% (−20)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 70% (−12)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 72% (−10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 80% (−2)
Win probability movement
NOP home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pelicans defeated the Spurs 136-131.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 82% confidence, but the Pelicans won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs defense (111.6 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (115.5 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs (48-17) in better form than Pelicans (21-45)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pelicans won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (111.6 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Pelicans (115.5 PPG)
Recent Form
Spurs (48-17) in better form than Pelicans (21-45)
Turnover Differential
Pelicans turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Spurs
Pelicans
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pelicans has a 18% win probability, while Spurs has a 82% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kia Center in Orlando, FL.