Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Spurs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Spurs are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 68% (+13)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 42% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 51% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 54% (−1)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Celtics 125-116.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a major factor: Celtics defense (106.9 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Celtics defense (106.9 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (118.6 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.5 PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Spurs (47-17) vs Celtics (43-21)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Celtics (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Celtics
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 55% win probability, while Celtics has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.