Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Suns are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 64% (+10)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 45% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 51% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 53% (−1)
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Rockets 145-120.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Warriors offense (115.3 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Suns are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Rockets
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 54% win probability, while Rockets has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.