Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 84% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.3 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (46-18) in better form than Grizzlies (23-41)
- Home Field Advantage. Pistons are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 65% (−19)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 75% (−9)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 77% (−7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 77% (−7)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Grizzlies 126-110.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 84% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.3 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons (46-18) in better form than Grizzlies (23-41)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.6 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.3 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (46-18) in better form than Grizzlies (23-41)
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.0 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.9 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Grizzlies
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 84% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 16% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.