Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Golden State Warriors 63% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Warriors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Warriors defense (113.9 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Warriors (32-31) in better form than Jazz (19-45)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 42% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 67% (+4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: GSW 56% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GSW 64% (+1)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jazz defeated the Warriors 119-116.
Our model predicted the Warriors would win with 63% confidence, but the Jazz won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a major factor: Warriors defense (113.9 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.3 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Warriors and was a notable factor: Warriors (32-31) in better form than Jazz (19-45)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jazz won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Recent FormFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (113.9 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.3 PPG)
Recent Form
Warriors (32-31) in better form than Jazz (19-45)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Warriors
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 37% win probability, while Warriors has a 63% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.