New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets 78% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Rockets (40-25) in better form than Pelicans (22-45)
- Home Field Advantage. Rockets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 57% (−21)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: HOU 70% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 72% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 76% (−2)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockets defeated the Pelicans 107-105.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 78% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Rockets (40-25) in better form than Pelicans (22-45)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockets and was a contributing factor: Rockets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormFavors Houston Rockets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.0 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Rockets (40-25) in better form than Pelicans (22-45)
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.6 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Rockets turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Rockets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockets has a 78% win probability, while Pelicans has a 22% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston, TX.