Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Warriors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Warriors defense (114.0 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (119.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Warriors are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Warriors (32-32) in better form than Bulls (26-38)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 57% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: GSW 70% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: GSW 71% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: GSW 74% (−3)
Win probability movement
GSW home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bulls defeated the Warriors 130-124.
Our model predicted the Warriors would win with 77% confidence, but the Bulls won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a major factor: Warriors defense (114.0 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (119.8 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Warriors and was a notable factor: Warriors are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors (32-32) in better form than Bulls (26-38)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bulls won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Golden State Warriors
- Recent FormFavors Golden State Warriors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Bulls
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Warriors defense (114.0 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (119.8 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Warriors (32-32) in better form than Bulls (26-38)
Offensive Efficiency
Bulls offense (115.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.1 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Warriors turnover differential (+0) vs Bulls (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bulls
Warriors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Warriors has a 77% win probability, while Bulls has a 23% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.