Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Trail Blazers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Trail Blazers defense (117.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Trail Blazers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Trail Blazers (31-35) in better form than Jazz (20-46)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 51% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: POR 74% (+2)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: POR 66% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: POR 66% (−6)
Win probability movement
POR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Trail Blazers defeated the Jazz 124-114.
Our model predicted the Trail Blazers would win with 72% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Trail Blazers and was a major factor: Trail Blazers defense (117.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.1 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Trail Blazers and was a contributing factor: Trail Blazers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Trail Blazers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Recent FormFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Trail Blazers defense (117.8 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (125.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.1 PPG)
Recent Form
Trail Blazers (31-35) in better form than Jazz (20-46)
Turnover Differential
Trail Blazers turnover differential (+0) vs Jazz (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Jazz
Trail Blazers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Trail Blazers has a 72% win probability, while Jazz has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Moda Center in Portland, OR.