Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns head-to-head
Charlotte Hornets 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Hornets:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hornets offense (116.1 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency were neutral: CHA 40% (−14)
- If the defensive efficiency were neutral: CHA 57% (+3)
- If the home-field advantage were neutral: CHA 57% (+3)
- If the recent form were neutral: CHA 53% (−1)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Hornets 111-99.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 54% confidence, but the Suns won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets offense (116.1 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Hornets (112.5 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Suns and was a notable factor: Suns are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won comfortably
How the call held up
The last pre-game call against the final score. Winner pre-game probability is how unexpected the result was.
The model favored CHA at 54%. Final: PHX 111–CHA 99. The winner's pre-game probability was 46%.
- pre-game call
- CHA 54%
- Final score
- PHX 111–CHA 99
- Favored team
- The favored team did not win
- Winner's pre-game probability
- 46%
Simple alignment check: whether the team each factor favored won. This is not a causal claim.
- Offensive Efficiency favored CHA. Did not line up: PHX won.
- Defensive Efficiency favored PHX. Lined up: PHX won.
- Home Field Advantage favored PHX. Lined up: PHX won.
- Recent Form was neutral — no side favored.
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hornets offense (116.1 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Hornets (112.5 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Suns (36-27) vs Hornets (32-32)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Hornets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Hornets
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
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More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Phoenix Suns
- Previous game72%PHX win probability
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Charlotte Hornets
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Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 46% win probability, while Hornets has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.