New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Suns (35-26) in better form than Pelicans (19-44)
- Home Field Advantage. Suns are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 51% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 76% (+4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PHX 65% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHX 66% (−6)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Suns defeated the Pelicans 118-116.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 72% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pelicans and was a notable factor: Pelicans offense (114.9 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns (35-26) in better form than Pelicans (19-44)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Suns won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
- Recent FormFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Pelicans (120.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Pelicans offense (114.9 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
Recent Form
Suns (35-26) in better form than Pelicans (19-44)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pelicans
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 72% win probability, while Pelicans has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.