Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Rockets are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Rockets offense (114.6 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.7 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 60% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 62% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 62% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: HOU 64% (−4)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockets defeated the Raptors 113-99.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (111.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Rockets are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a contributing factor: Rockets offense (114.6 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.7 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockets won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormFavors Houston Rockets
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Raptors
Rockets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockets has a 68% win probability, while Raptors has a 32% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston, TX.