Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hawks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Recent Form. Hawks (33-31) in better form than Mavericks (21-43)
- Home Field Advantage. Hawks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 59% (−17)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ATL 70% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 70% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 71% (−5)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Mavericks 124-112.
Our model predicted the Hawks would win with 76% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a major factor: Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Hawks and was a contributing factor: Hawks (33-31) in better form than Mavericks (21-43)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hawks and was a contributing factor: Hawks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Recent FormFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Mavericks (113.0 PPG)
Recent Form
Hawks (33-31) in better form than Mavericks (21-43)
Defensive Efficiency
Hawks defense (117.3 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (117.7 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Hawks turnover differential (+0) vs Mavericks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mavericks
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 76% win probability, while Mavericks has a 24% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.