Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings
Charlotte Hornets 85% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hornets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Hornets offense (115.9 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.6 PPG)
- Recent Form. Hornets (32-33) in better form than Kings (15-50)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 67% (−18)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 69% (−16)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHA 77% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHA 83% (−2)
Win probability movement
SAC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Kings 117-109.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 85% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets offense (115.9 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.6 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Hornets and was a notable factor: Hornets (32-33) in better form than Kings (15-50)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Recent FormFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Sacramento Kings
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Kings (121.1 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Hornets offense (115.9 PPG) outpaces Kings (110.6 PPG)
Recent Form
Hornets (32-33) in better form than Kings (15-50)
Turnover Differential
Kings turnover differential (+0) vs Hornets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Hornets
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 15% win probability, while Hornets has a 85% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA.