Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.1 PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (40-25) in better form than Magic (35-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 43% (−12)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 58% (+3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 57% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 53% (−2)
Win probability movement
ORL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Magic defeated the Cavaliers 128-122.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 55% confidence, but the Magic won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.1 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a contributing factor: Magic defense (113.6 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.6 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Magic won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Orlando Magic
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.1 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Magic defense (113.6 Opp PPG) better than Cavaliers (114.6 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (40-25) in better form than Magic (35-28)
Turnover Differential
Magic turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cavaliers
Magic
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Magic has a 45% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Kia Center in Orlando, FL.