Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers
Charlotte Hornets 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hornets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (118.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Hornets (32-33) in better form than Trail Blazers (31-34)
- Offensive Efficiency. Hornets offense (115.9 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.3 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 48% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHA 68% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHA 63% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 63% (−5)
Win probability movement
POR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Trail Blazers 103-101.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 68% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (118.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Trail Blazers and was a notable factor: Trail Blazers are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Hornets and was a contributing factor: Hornets (32-33) in better form than Trail Blazers (31-34)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Portland Trail Blazers
- Recent FormFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Hornets defense (112.5 Opp PPG) better than Trail Blazers (118.0 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Hornets (32-33) in better form than Trail Blazers (31-34)
Offensive Efficiency
Hornets offense (115.9 PPG) outpaces Trail Blazers (115.3 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Trail Blazers turnover differential (+0) vs Hornets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Hornets
Trail Blazers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Trail Blazers has a 32% win probability, while Hornets has a 68% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Moda Center in Portland, OR.