NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-03-09 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 66% across 56 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 87% — final LAC 109–SAC 118
- Defensive Efficiency (favors LAC)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors LAC)
- Recent Form (favors LAC)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magic at Bucks Mon, Mar 9 | MIL 35% • ORL 65% | MIL 91–ORL 130 | Hit |
| Rockets at Spurs Mon, Mar 9 | SAS 54% • HOU 46% | SAS 145–HOU 120 | Hit |
| Bulls at Kings Mon, Mar 9 | SAC 56% • CHI 44% | SAC 126–CHI 110 | Hit |
| Pacers at Trail Blazers Mon, Mar 9 | POR 56% • IND 44% | POR 131–IND 111 | Hit |
| Hornets at Suns Mon, Mar 9 | PHX 46% • CHA 54% | PHX 111–CHA 99 | Miss |
| 76ers at Cavaliers Mon, Mar 9 | CLE 73% • PHI 27% | CLE 115–PHI 101 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Nets Mon, Mar 9 | BKN 39% • MEM 61% | BKN 126–MEM 115 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Thunder Mon, Mar 9 | OKC 76% • DEN 24% | OKC 129–DEN 126 | Hit |
| Warriors at Jazz Tue, Mar 10 | UTA 37% • GSW 63% | UTA 119–GSW 116 | Miss |
| Knicks at Clippers Tue, Mar 10 | LAC 30% • NYK 70% | LAC 126–NYK 118 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at 76ers Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 65% • MEM 35% | PHI 139–MEM 129 | Hit |
| Pistons at Nets Tue, Mar 10 | BKN 13% • DET 87% | BKN 100–DET 138 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Hawks Tue, Mar 10 | ATL 76% • DAL 24% | ATL 124–DAL 112 | Hit |
| Spurs at Lakers Tue, Mar 10 | LAL 30% • SAS 70% | LAL 150–SAS 129 | Miss |
| Celtics at Spurs Wed, Mar 11 | SAS 55% • BOS 45% | SAS 125–BOS 116 | Hit |
| Raptors at Rockets Wed, Mar 11 | HOU 68% • TOR 32% | HOU 113–TOR 99 | Hit |
| Suns at Bucks Wed, Mar 11 | MIL 32% • PHX 68% | MIL 114–PHX 129 | Hit |
| Bulls at Warriors Wed, Mar 11 | GSW 77% • CHI 23% | GSW 124–CHI 130 | Miss |
| Hornets at Trail Blazers Wed, Mar 11 | POR 32% • CHA 68% | POR 101–CHA 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Kings Wed, Mar 11 | SAC 49% • IND 51% | SAC 114–IND 109 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Lakers Wed, Mar 11 | LAL 43% • MIN 57% | LAL 120–MIN 106 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Magic Wed, Mar 11 | ORL 45% • CLE 55% | ORL 128–CLE 122 | Miss |
| Raptors at Pelicans Thu, Mar 12 | NOP 36% • TOR 64% | NOP 122–TOR 111 | Miss |
| Knicks at Jazz Thu, Mar 12 | UTA 29% • NYK 71% | UTA 117–NYK 134 | Hit |
| Rockets at Nuggets Thu, Mar 12 | DEN 54% • HOU 46% | DEN 129–HOU 93 | Hit |
| Hornets at Kings Thu, Mar 12 | SAC 15% • CHA 85% | SAC 109–CHA 117 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Clippers Thu, Mar 12 | LAC 39% • MIN 61% | LAC 153–MIN 128 | Miss |
| Suns at Pacers Thu, Mar 12 | IND 26% • PHX 74% | IND 108–PHX 123 | Hit |
| Spurs at Pelicans Thu, Mar 12 | NOP 18% • SAS 82% | NOP 136–SAS 131 | Miss |
| 76ers at Pistons Thu, Mar 12 | DET 82% • PHI 19% | DET 131–PHI 109 | Hit |
| Nets at Hawks Thu, Mar 12 | ATL 77% • BKN 23% | ATL 108–BKN 97 | Hit |
| Bucks at Heat Thu, Mar 12 | MIA 77% • MIL 23% | MIA 112–MIL 105 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Grizzlies Fri, Mar 13 | MEM 65% • DAL 35% | MEM 112–DAL 120 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Spurs Fri, Mar 13 | SAS 70% • DEN 30% | SAS 131–DEN 136 | Miss |
| Celtics at Thunder Fri, Mar 13 | OKC 71% • BOS 29% | OKC 104–BOS 102 | Hit |
| Bulls at Lakers Fri, Mar 13 | LAL 78% • CHI 22% | LAL 142–CHI 130 | Hit |
| Knicks at Pacers Fri, Mar 13 | IND 13% • NYK 87% | IND 92–NYK 101 | Hit |
| Suns at Raptors Fri, Mar 13 | TOR 57% • PHX 43% | TOR 122–PHX 115 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Pistons Fri, Mar 13 | DET 84% • MEM 16% | DET 126–MEM 110 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Mavericks Fri, Mar 13 | DAL 20% • CLE 80% | DAL 105–CLE 138 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Rockets Sat, Mar 14 | HOU 78% • NOP 22% | HOU 107–NOP 105 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Warriors Sat, Mar 14 | GSW 45% • MIN 56% | GSW 117–MIN 127 | Hit |
| Jazz at Trail Blazers Sat, Mar 14 | POR 72% • UTA 28% | POR 124–UTA 114 | Hit |
| Bulls at Clippers Sat, Mar 14 | LAC 69% • CHI 31% | LAC 119–CHI 108 | Hit |
| Nets at 76ers Sat, Mar 14 | PHI 79% • BKN 21% | PHI 104–BKN 97 | Hit |
| Bucks at Hawks Sat, Mar 14 | ATL 76% • MIL 24% | ATL 122–MIL 99 | Hit |
| Hornets at Spurs Sat, Mar 14 | SAS 71% • CHA 29% | SAS 115–CHA 102 | Hit |
| Wizards at Celtics Sat, Mar 14 | BOS 56% • WSH 44% | BOS 111–WSH 100 | Hit |
| Magic at Heat Sun, Mar 15 | MIA 67% • ORL 33% | MIA 117–ORL 121 | Miss |
| Nuggets at Lakers Sun, Mar 15 | LAL 44% • DEN 56% | LAL 127–DEN 125 | Miss |
| Kings at Clippers Sun, Mar 15 | LAC 87% • SAC 13% | LAC 109–SAC 118 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Thunder Sun, Mar 15 | OKC 79% • MIN 21% | OKC 116–MIN 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Bucks Sun, Mar 15 | MIL 71% • IND 29% | MIL 134–IND 123 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Cavaliers Sun, Mar 15 | CLE 86% • DAL 14% | CLE 120–DAL 130 | Miss |
| Pistons at Raptors Sun, Mar 15 | TOR 30% • DET 70% | TOR 119–DET 108 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at 76ers Sun, Mar 15 | PHI 64% • POR 36% | PHI 109–POR 103 | Hit |