NHL report card: week of 2026-10-12 (2026-27)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
65.3%
hit rate
0.234
Brier score
32 of 49 decided
Season to date
59.1%
hit rate
0.244
Brier score
104 of 176 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Panthers at Blue JacketsCBJ 73.2% pre-game — final CBJ 3–FLA 7
- Oilers at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 67.9% pre-game — final UTA 2–EDM 6
- Sharks at PredatorsNSH 67.6% pre-game — final NSH 2–SJS 3
- Stars at AvalancheCOL 64.5% pre-game — final COL 2–DAL 3
- Stars at BlackhawksCHI 63.9% pre-game — final CHI 0–DAL 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Canucks at LightningTBL 78.8% pre-game — final TBL 4–VAN 2
- Penguins at Golden KnightsVGK 74.3% pre-game — final VGK 6–PIT 2
- Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 73.7% pre-game — final UTA 5–TOR 4
- Canucks at IslandersNYI 72.2% pre-game — final NYI 3–VAN 2
- Canadiens at CapitalsWSH 71.3% pre-game — final WSH 5–MTL 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers at Sabres Mon, Oct 12 | BUF 40.3% · FLA 59.7% | BUF 5–FLA 3 | Miss |
| Senators at Devils Mon, Oct 12 | NJD 60.8% · OTT 39.2% | NJD 1–OTT 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Wild Tue, Oct 13 | MIN 37.5% · VGK 62.5% | MIN 4–VGK 2 | Miss |
| Devils at Red Wings Tue, Oct 13 | DET 59.3% · NJD 40.7% | DET 4–NJD 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Blue Jackets Tue, Oct 13 | CBJ 73.2% · FLA 26.8% | CBJ 3–FLA 7 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Tue, Oct 13 | MTL 62.4% · BUF 37.6% | MTL 4–BUF 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Hurricanes Tue, Oct 13 | CAR 59.5% · WSH 40.5% | CAR 4–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Kraken at Flyers Tue, Oct 13 | PHI 40.6% · SEA 59.4% | PHI 2–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Lightning at Rangers Tue, Oct 13 | NYR 64.8% · TBL 35.1% | NYR 4–TBL 1 | Hit |
| Blues at Senators Tue, Oct 13 | OTT 63.2% · STL 36.8% | OTT 2–STL 7 | Miss |
| Canucks at Islanders Tue, Oct 13 | NYI 72.2% · VAN 27.8% | NYI 3–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Blackhawks Wed, Oct 14 | CHI 53.6% · PIT 46.4% | CHI 5–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Wild at Jets Wed, Oct 14 | WPG 59.0% · MIN 41.0% | WPG 5–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Predators Wed, Oct 14 | NSH 57.9% · VGK 42.1% | NSH 2–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Stars Wed, Oct 14 | DAL 42.9% · COL 57.1% | DAL 2–COL 3 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club Wed, Oct 14 | UTA 73.7% · TOR 26.4% | UTA 5–TOR 4 | Hit |
| Flames at Ducks Wed, Oct 14 | ANA 59.1% · CGY 40.9% | ANA 2–CGY 4 | Miss |
| Oilers at Kings Wed, Oct 14 | LAK 53.0% · EDM 46.9% | LAK 1–EDM 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Sharks Wed, Oct 14 | SJS 40.4% · BOS 59.6% | SJS 3–BOS 6 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Capitals Wed, Oct 14 | WSH 71.3% · MTL 28.7% | WSH 5–MTL 4 | Hit |
| Stars at Avalanche Thu, Oct 15 | COL 64.5% · DAL 35.5% | COL 2–DAL 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Maple Leafs Thu, Oct 15 | TOR 57.2% · BUF 42.8% | TOR 4–BUF 5 | Miss |
| Islanders at Senators Thu, Oct 15 | OTT 53.9% · NYI 46.1% | OTT 2–NYI 1 | Hit |
| Canucks at Panthers Thu, Oct 15 | FLA 59.0% · VAN 41.0% | FLA 3–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Kraken at Lightning Thu, Oct 15 | TBL 63.0% · SEA 37.0% | TBL 4–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Rangers at Devils Thu, Oct 15 | NJD 40.0% · NYR 60.1% | NJD 7–NYR 1 | Miss |
| Flyers at Red Wings Thu, Oct 15 | DET 57.5% · PHI 42.5% | DET 2–PHI 1 | Hit |
| Jets at Blackhawks Fri, Oct 16 | CHI 64.8% · WPG 35.2% | CHI 4–WPG 3 | Hit |
| Blues at Wild Fri, Oct 16 | MIN 50.9% · STL 49.1% | MIN 5–STL 4 | Hit |
| Sharks at Predators Fri, Oct 16 | NSH 67.6% · SJS 32.4% | NSH 2–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Oilers Fri, Oct 16 | EDM 44.7% · UTA 55.3% | EDM 2–UTA 4 | Hit |
| Flames at Golden Knights Fri, Oct 16 | VGK 68.9% · CGY 31.1% | VGK 6–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Avalanche Sat, Oct 17 | COL 57.8% · PIT 42.2% | COL 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Ducks Sat, Oct 17 | ANA 39.7% · BOS 60.3% | ANA 2–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Devils at Capitals Sat, Oct 17 | WSH 55.8% · NJD 44.2% | WSH 4–NJD 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Jets Sat, Oct 17 | WPG 32.5% · CAR 67.5% | WPG 2–CAR 3 | Hit |
| Canucks at Lightning Sat, Oct 17 | TBL 78.8% · VAN 21.2% | TBL 4–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Kraken at Panthers Sat, Oct 17 | FLA 50.7% · SEA 49.3% | FLA 8–SEA 3 | Hit |
| Stars at Blackhawks Sat, Oct 17 | CHI 63.9% · DAL 36.1% | CHI 0–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Canadiens Sat, Oct 17 | MTL 56.7% · BUF 43.3% | MTL 4–BUF 3 | Hit |
| Islanders at Maple Leafs Sat, Oct 17 | TOR 43.0% · NYI 57.0% | TOR 1–NYI 4 | Hit |
| Senators at Flyers Sat, Oct 17 | PHI 36.6% · OTT 63.4% | PHI 3–OTT 1 | Miss |
| Sharks at Red Wings Sat, Oct 17 | DET 47.4% · SJS 52.6% | DET 4–SJS 3 | Miss |
| Rangers at Blue Jackets Sat, Oct 17 | CBJ 51.6% · NYR 48.4% | CBJ 1–NYR 0 | Hit |
| Blues at Predators Sun, Oct 18 | NSH 64.8% · STL 35.2% | NSH 5–STL 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Kings Sun, Oct 18 | LAK 37.5% · BOS 62.5% | LAK 1–BOS 4 | Hit |
| Oilers at Utah Hockey Club Sun, Oct 18 | UTA 67.9% · EDM 32.1% | UTA 2–EDM 6 | Miss |
| Penguins at Golden Knights Sun, Oct 18 | VGK 74.3% · PIT 25.8% | VGK 6–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Wild Sun, Oct 18 | MIN 55.1% · CBJ 44.9% | MIN 2–CBJ 1 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.