NHL Analysis

The NHL model scores nine factors for every game: Elo rating, each team's home and road record this season, goals scored and allowed per game (goals allowed carries the largest single weight), turnover differential, recent form, head-to-head history, rest (including back-to-backs), and injuries weighted by position (a goalie counts most). Every game is re-scored each morning, then every 15 minutes in the three hours before puck drop as injury reports change. The methodology page explains the full method.