NHL
NHL surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026-27 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 106 of 179 decided games this season (59.2%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason is excluded.
This week
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | TOR at CBJ Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets | TOR 22.9% | CBJ 2–TOR 6 | Injuries Blue Jackets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 20 | LAK at WSH Kings at Capitals | LAK 29.4% | WSH 2–LAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Capitals are 6-1 at home this season; Kings are 1-3 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | TOR at EDM Maple Leafs at Oilers | TOR 35.1% | EDM 2–TOR 7 | Home Field Advantage Oilers are 5-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | MTL at CHI Canadiens at Blackhawks | MTL 35.4% | CHI 1–MTL 4 | Injuries Blackhawks healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | MIN at SEA Wild at Kraken | MIN 35.5% | SEA 1–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Kraken are 5-1 at home this season; Wild are 2-7 on the road |
| Thu, Oct 22 | LAK at NYI Kings at Islanders | LAK 37.3% | NYI 2–LAK 3 | Home Field Advantage Islanders are 4-3 at home this season; Kings are 2-3 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | ANA at PHI Ducks at Flyers | ANA 37.4% | PHI 4–ANA 5 | Injuries Flyers healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Ducks 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 23 | VGK at STL Golden Knights at Blues | STL 37.5% | STL 6–VGK 2 | Injuries Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Blues 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 22 | NYR at TOR Rangers at Maple Leafs | TOR 38.6% | TOR 5–NYR 4 | Injuries Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | BOS at DAL Bruins at Stars | DAL 38.8% | DAL 3–BOS 2 | Injuries Bruins healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 19 | SJS at TOR Sharks at Maple Leafs | TOR 40.1% | TOR 3–SJS 1 | Injuries Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 19 | COL at PHI Avalanche at Flyers | PHI 40.7% | PHI 3–COL 2 | Recent Form Avalanche (5-2) in better form than Flyers (1-6) |
| Fri, Oct 23 | CAR at EDM Hurricanes at Oilers | EDM 41.7% | EDM 6–CAR 5 | Injuries Hurricanes healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 6 out, 0 doubtful |
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct 10 | TOR at COL Maple Leafs at Avalanche | TOR 22.1% | COL 3–TOR 6 | Injuries Avalanche healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 20 | TOR at CBJ Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets | TOR 22.9% | CBJ 2–TOR 6 | Injuries Blue Jackets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 5 | WPG at PIT Jets at Penguins | WPG 25.8% | PIT 2–WPG 3 | Injuries Penguins healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Jets 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 13 | FLA at CBJ Panthers at Blue Jackets | FLA 26.8% | CBJ 3–FLA 7 | Injuries Blue Jackets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 2 | EDM at VAN Oilers at Canucks | EDM 27.6% | VAN 7–EDM 9 | Injuries Canucks healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 2 | MIN at NSH Wild at Predators | MIN 29.0% | NSH 1–MIN 3 | Injuries Predators healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 2 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 20 | LAK at WSH Kings at Capitals | LAK 29.4% | WSH 2–LAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Capitals are 6-1 at home this season; Kings are 1-3 on the road |
| Wed, Sep 30 | PIT at PHI Penguins at Flyers | PIT 31.2% | PHI 0–PIT 7 | Injuries Flyers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Penguins 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 9 | SJS at STL Sharks at Blues | SJS 32.0% | STL 2–SJS 3 | Injuries Blues healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 8 | EDM at ANA Oilers at Ducks | EDM 32.0% | ANA 2–EDM 5 | Injuries Ducks healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 18 | EDM at UTA Oilers at Utah Hockey Club | EDM 32.1% | UTA 2–EDM 6 | Injuries Utah Hockey Club healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 10 | MIN at FLA Wild at Panthers | MIN 32.2% | FLA 1–MIN 4 | Injuries Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 16 | SJS at NSH Sharks at Predators | SJS 32.4% | NSH 2–SJS 3 | Injuries Predators healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 2 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 5 | OTT at BOS Senators at Bruins | OTT 33.3% | BOS 1–OTT 4 | Injuries Bruins healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Sep 29 | FLA at CAR Panthers at Hurricanes | FLA 34.5% | CAR 0–FLA 1 | Home Field Advantage Hurricanes are 2-0 at home this season; Panthers are 1-1 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 3 | ANA at VGK Ducks at Golden Knights | ANA 34.8% | VGK 3–ANA 4 | Home Field Advantage Golden Knights are 2-1 at home this season; Ducks are 0-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Sat, Oct 24 | TOR at EDM Maple Leafs at Oilers | TOR 35.1% | EDM 2–TOR 7 | Home Field Advantage Oilers are 5-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 3 | UTA at CBJ Utah Hockey Club at Blue Jackets | UTA 35.3% | CBJ 1–UTA 4 | Home Field Advantage Blue Jackets are 3-0 at home this season; Utah Hockey Club are 1-2 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | MTL at CHI Canadiens at Blackhawks | MTL 35.4% | CHI 1–MTL 4 | Injuries Blackhawks healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Oct 25 | MIN at SEA Wild at Kraken | MIN 35.5% | SEA 1–MIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Kraken are 5-1 at home this season; Wild are 2-7 on the road |
| Thu, Oct 15 | DAL at COL Stars at Avalanche | DAL 35.5% | COL 2–DAL 3 | Home Field Advantage Avalanche are 4-1 at home this season; Stars are 3-2 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Sat, Oct 17 | DAL at CHI Stars at Blackhawks | DAL 36.1% | CHI 0–DAL 4 | Injuries Blackhawks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 17 | OTT at PHI Senators at Flyers | PHI 36.6% | PHI 3–OTT 1 | Recent Form Senators (6-2) in better form than Flyers (0-6) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | CBJ at STL Blue Jackets at Blues | STL 36.7% | STL 5–CBJ 3 | Injuries Blue Jackets healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Blues 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 13 | STL at OTT Blues at Senators | STL 36.8% | OTT 2–STL 7 | Home Field Advantage Senators are 3-1 at home this season; Blues are 1-4 on the road |
| Thu, Oct 22 | LAK at NYI Kings at Islanders | LAK 37.3% | NYI 2–LAK 3 | Home Field Advantage Islanders are 4-3 at home this season; Kings are 2-3 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | ANA at PHI Ducks at Flyers | ANA 37.4% | PHI 4–ANA 5 | Injuries Flyers healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Ducks 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 23 | VGK at STL Golden Knights at Blues | STL 37.5% | STL 6–VGK 2 | Injuries Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Blues 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 13 | VGK at MIN Golden Knights at Wild | MIN 37.5% | MIN 4–VGK 2 | Injuries Golden Knights healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Wild 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 3 | SEA at EDM Kraken at Oilers | EDM 37.6% | EDM 3–SEA 1 | Injuries Kraken healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 2 | FLA at SJS Panthers at Sharks | SJS 38.0% | SJS 4–FLA 3 | Injuries Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sharks 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 10 | EDM at SJS Oilers at Sharks | EDM 38.3% | SJS 1–EDM 3 | Injuries Sharks healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 22 | NYR at TOR Rangers at Maple Leafs | TOR 38.6% | TOR 5–NYR 4 | Injuries Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Tue, Oct 6 | MIN at BUF Wild at Sabres | BUF 38.7% | BUF 3–MIN 2 | Injuries Wild healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 21 | BOS at DAL Bruins at Stars | DAL 38.8% | DAL 3–BOS 2 | Injuries Bruins healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Stars 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 12 | OTT at NJD Senators at Devils | OTT 39.2% | NJD 1–OTT 4 | Home Field Advantage Devils are 4-1 at home this season; Senators are 2-4 on the road |
| Thu, Oct 15 | NYR at NJD Rangers at Devils | NJD 40.0% | NJD 7–NYR 1 | Injuries Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Devils 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Sep 30 | NYI at TOR Islanders at Maple Leafs | TOR 40.0% | TOR 2–NYI 1 | Injuries Islanders healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 9 | COL at CGY Avalanche at Flames | COL 40.1% | CGY 3–COL 7 | Injuries Flames healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 19 | SJS at TOR Sharks at Maple Leafs | TOR 40.1% | TOR 3–SJS 1 | Injuries Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Mon, Oct 12 | FLA at BUF Panthers at Sabres | BUF 40.3% | BUF 5–FLA 3 | Injuries Panthers healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 2 | WSH at CAR Capitals at Hurricanes | WSH 40.6% | CAR 2–WSH 5 | Home Field Advantage Hurricanes are 2-1 at home this season; Capitals are 1-1 on the road |
| Mon, Oct 19 | COL at PHI Avalanche at Flyers | PHI 40.7% | PHI 3–COL 2 | Recent Form Avalanche (5-2) in better form than Flyers (1-6) |
| Tue, Oct 13 | NJD at DET Devils at Red Wings | NJD 40.7% | DET 4–NJD 5 | Rest Days Red Wings rest advantage (2 days rest) over Devils (back-to-back) |
| Sat, Oct 3 | WSH at TBL Capitals at Lightning | TBL 40.8% | TBL 3–WSH 1 | Recent Form Capitals (1-0) in better form than Lightning (0-1) |
| Wed, Oct 14 | CGY at ANA Flames at Ducks | CGY 40.9% | ANA 2–CGY 4 | Recent Form Ducks (4-1) in better form than Flames (0-5) |
| Sun, Oct 11 | SEA at WSH Kraken at Capitals | SEA 41.4% | WSH 3–SEA 5 | Home Field Advantage Capitals are 4-0 at home this season; Kraken are 3-2 on the road |
| Fri, Oct 9 | NYR at WSH Rangers at Capitals | WSH 41.7% | WSH 3–NYR 1 | Injuries Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Capitals 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Oct 23 | CAR at EDM Hurricanes at Oilers | EDM 41.7% | EDM 6–CAR 5 | Injuries Hurricanes healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 14 | VGK at NSH Golden Knights at Predators | VGK 42.1% | NSH 2–VGK 5 | Injuries Predators healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Golden Knights 2 out, 0 doubtful |
Showing 1–50 of 73 surprises