NHL
NHL surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026-27 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 106 of 179 decided games this season (59.2%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Oct 20 | SJS at MTL Sharks at Canadiens | SJS 42.2% | MTL 3–SJS 4 | Rest Days Canadiens rest advantage (3 days rest) over Sharks (back-to-back) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | TBL at VGK Lightning at Golden Knights | TBL 42.6% | VGK 2–TBL 6 | Home Field Advantage Golden Knights are 6-2 at home this season; Lightning are 2-3 on the road |
| Tue, Oct 6 | NSH at TOR Predators at Maple Leafs | TOR 42.7% | TOR 5–NSH 4 | Injuries Predators healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 15 | BUF at TOR Sabres at Maple Leafs | BUF 42.8% | TOR 4–BUF 5 | Home Field Advantage Maple Leafs are 3-3 at home this season; Sabres are 0-4 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage) |
| Fri, Oct 2 | SEA at CGY Kraken at Flames | SEA 43.0% | CGY 1–SEA 6 | Home Field Advantage Flames are 1-1 at home this season; Kraken are 1-1 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 24 | TBL at COL Lightning at Avalanche | COL 44.5% | COL 6–TBL 3 | Injuries Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 7 | FLA at LAK Panthers at Kings | FLA 45.2% | LAK 1–FLA 2 | Injuries Kings healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 7 | COL at WPG Avalanche at Jets | WPG 45.5% | WPG 3–COL 2 | Recent Form Avalanche (2-0) in better form than Jets (2-0) |
| Wed, Oct 21 | PHI at BUF Flyers at Sabres | PHI 45.6% | BUF 1–PHI 3 | Home Field Advantage Sabres are 4-3 at home this season; Flyers are 0-7 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 10 | DET at MTL Red Wings at Canadiens | MTL 45.9% | MTL 1–DET 0 | Injuries Red Wings healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 24 | NSH at PIT Predators at Penguins | PIT 46.4% | PIT 3–NSH 2 | Injuries Predators healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Penguins 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Oct 14 | EDM at LAK Oilers at Kings | EDM 46.9% | LAK 1–EDM 4 | Injuries Kings healthier: 5 out, 0 doubtful vs Oilers 10 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 1 | LAK at COL Kings at Avalanche | COL 47.2% | COL 8–LAK 4 | Injuries Kings healthier: 4 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 17 | SJS at DET Sharks at Red Wings | DET 47.4% | DET 4–SJS 3 | Injuries Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Red Wings 4 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 8 | DAL at BUF Stars at Sabres | DAL 47.5% | BUF 0–DAL 4 | Home Field Advantage Sabres are 3-1 at home this season; Stars are 2-1 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 10 | TBL at NYI Lightning at Islanders | TBL 47.9% | NYI 3–TBL 5 | Home Field Advantage Islanders are 2-2 at home this season; Lightning are 1-2 on the road |
| Tue, Oct 6 | OTT at DET Senators at Red Wings | DET 48.0% | DET 5–OTT 3 | Recent Form Senators (2-0) in better form than Red Wings (0-2) |
| Sun, Oct 4 | WPG at DET Jets at Red Wings | WPG 48.1% | DET 2–WPG 3 | Home Field Advantage Red Wings are 1-2 at home this season; Jets are 0-2 on the road |
| Fri, Oct 23 | DET at VAN Red Wings at Canucks | DET 48.1% | VAN 2–DET 5 | Home Field Advantage Canucks are 2-4 at home this season; Red Wings are 1-3 on the road |
| Sun, Oct 4 | CGY at VAN Flames at Canucks | VAN 48.9% | VAN 4–CGY 1 | Injuries Flames healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Canucks 6 out, 0 doubtful |
| Wed, Sep 30 | NYR at BOS Rangers at Bruins | BOS 49.0% | BOS 3–NYR 0 | Injuries Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Bruins 2 out, 0 doubtful |
| Thu, Oct 22 | SJS at OTT Sharks at Senators | SJS 49.1% | OTT 2–SJS 6 | Home Field Advantage Senators are 5-2 at home this season; Sharks are 4-4 on the road |
| Sat, Oct 3 | CHI at BUF Blackhawks at Sabres | BUF 49.5% | BUF 4–CHI 3 | Injuries Blackhawks healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 5 out, 0 doubtful |
Showing 51–73 of 73 surprises