Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Golden Knights:
- Home Field Advantage. Golden Knights are 6-2 at home this season; Lightning are 2-3 on the road
- ELO Rating. Golden Knights ELO 1573 vs Lightning ELO 1532 (diff: +40)
- Recent Form. Golden Knights (8-2) in better form than Lightning (6-2)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Golden Knights 6-2.
Our model predicted the Golden Knights would win with 57% confidence, but the Lightning pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Golden Knights and was a notable factor: Golden Knights are 6-2 at home this season; Lightning are 2-3 on the road
- Injuries favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Golden Knights 2 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating favored the Golden Knights and was a contributing factor: Golden Knights ELO 1573 vs Lightning ELO 1532 (diff: +40)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Golden Knights have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Lightning have 1.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- ELO RatingFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Recent FormFavors Vegas Golden Knights
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Golden Knights
Lightning
Key Players
Lightning
Golden Knights
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Golden Knights has a 57% win probability, while Lightning has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.