San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 58% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Canadiens:
- Rest Days. Canadiens rest advantage (3 days rest) over Sharks (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Canadiens are 6-2 at home this season; Sharks are 3-4 on the road
- ELO Rating. Canadiens ELO 1524 vs Sharks ELO 1441 (diff: +83)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Sharks defeated the Canadiens 4-3.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 58% confidence, but the Sharks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Sharks and was a major factor: Sharks healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 6 out, 0 doubtful
- Rest Days favored the Canadiens and was a major factor: Canadiens rest advantage (3 days rest) over Sharks (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a notable factor: Canadiens are 6-2 at home this season; Sharks are 3-4 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Canadiens have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Sharks have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Sharks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Jose Sharks
- Rest DaysFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- ELO RatingFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Canadiens
Sharks
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Sharks healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Canadiens 6 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest Days
Canadiens rest advantage (3 days rest) over Sharks (back-to-back)
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Canadiens
Sharks
Key Players
Sharks
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canadiens has a 58% win probability, while Sharks has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.