NHL report card: week of 2026-10-19 (2026-27)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
53.7%
hit rate
0.249
Brier score
22 of 41 decided
Season to date
59.1%
hit rate
0.244
Brier score
104 of 176 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Maple Leafs at Blue JacketsCBJ 77.1% pre-game — final CBJ 2–TOR 6
- Kings at CapitalsWSH 70.6% pre-game — final WSH 2–LAK 5
- Maple Leafs at OilersEDM 64.9% pre-game — final EDM 2–TOR 7
- Canadiens at BlackhawksCHI 64.5% pre-game — final CHI 1–MTL 4
- Kings at IslandersNYI 62.7% pre-game — final NYI 2–LAK 3
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Sharks at BruinsBOS 74.6% pre-game — final BOS 6–SJS 4
- Sabres at CapitalsWSH 72.5% pre-game — final WSH 4–BUF 3
- Ducks at RangersNYR 71.9% pre-game — final NYR 5–ANA 2
- Penguins at Utah Hockey ClubUTA 71.4% pre-game — final UTA 5–PIT 4
- Rangers at SenatorsOTT 70.2% pre-game — final OTT 7–NYR 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes at Flames Mon, Oct 19 | CGY 52.7% · CAR 47.3% | CGY 3–CAR 2 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Flyers Mon, Oct 19 | PHI 40.7% · COL 59.3% | PHI 3–COL 2 | Miss |
| Ducks at Rangers Mon, Oct 19 | NYR 71.9% · ANA 28.1% | NYR 5–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Maple Leafs Mon, Oct 19 | TOR 40.1% · SJS 59.9% | TOR 3–SJS 1 | Miss |
| Penguins at Utah Hockey Club Tue, Oct 20 | UTA 71.4% · PIT 28.6% | UTA 5–PIT 4 | Hit |
| Sharks at Canadiens Tue, Oct 20 | MTL 57.8% · SJS 42.2% | MTL 3–SJS 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Islanders Tue, Oct 20 | NYI 52.8% · ANA 47.2% | NYI 3–ANA 2 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Devils Tue, Oct 20 | NJD 67.8% · COL 32.2% | NJD 4–COL 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Capitals Tue, Oct 20 | WSH 70.6% · LAK 29.4% | WSH 2–LAK 5 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets Tue, Oct 20 | CBJ 77.1% · TOR 22.9% | CBJ 2–TOR 6 | Miss |
| Jets at Blues Wed, Oct 21 | STL 52.0% · WPG 47.9% | STL 2–WPG 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Stars Wed, Oct 21 | DAL 38.8% · BOS 61.2% | DAL 3–BOS 2 | Miss |
| Wild at Oilers Wed, Oct 21 | EDM 51.4% · MIN 48.6% | EDM 4–MIN 3 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Kraken Wed, Oct 21 | SEA 65.7% · DET 34.3% | SEA 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Canucks Wed, Oct 21 | VAN 38.1% · CAR 61.9% | VAN 3–CAR 6 | Hit |
| Lightning at Golden Knights Wed, Oct 21 | VGK 57.4% · TBL 42.6% | VGK 2–TBL 6 | Miss |
| Flyers at Sabres Wed, Oct 21 | BUF 54.4% · PHI 45.6% | BUF 1–PHI 3 | Miss |
| Panthers at Senators Wed, Oct 21 | OTT 66.0% · FLA 34.0% | OTT 5–FLA 1 | Hit |
| Rangers at Maple Leafs Thu, Oct 22 | TOR 38.6% · NYR 61.4% | TOR 5–NYR 4 | Miss |
| Ducks at Devils Thu, Oct 22 | NJD 66.4% · ANA 33.6% | NJD 4–ANA 1 | Hit |
| Sharks at Senators Thu, Oct 22 | OTT 50.9% · SJS 49.1% | OTT 2–SJS 6 | Miss |
| Panthers at Penguins Thu, Oct 22 | PIT 57.8% · FLA 42.2% | PIT 4–FLA 0 | Hit |
| Predators at Bruins Thu, Oct 22 | BOS 63.8% · NSH 36.2% | BOS 6–NSH 0 | Hit |
| Kings at Islanders Thu, Oct 22 | NYI 62.7% · LAK 37.3% | NYI 2–LAK 3 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Blues Fri, Oct 23 | STL 37.5% · VGK 62.5% | STL 6–VGK 2 | Miss |
| Jets at Stars Fri, Oct 23 | DAL 58.6% · WPG 41.4% | DAL 3–WPG 2 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Oilers Fri, Oct 23 | EDM 41.7% · CAR 58.3% | EDM 6–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Wild at Flames Fri, Oct 23 | CGY 60.6% · MIN 39.4% | CGY 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Kraken Fri, Oct 23 | SEA 50.5% · UTA 49.5% | SEA 5–UTA 3 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Canucks Fri, Oct 23 | VAN 51.8% · DET 48.1% | VAN 2–DET 5 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Blackhawks Sat, Oct 24 | CHI 64.5% · MTL 35.4% | CHI 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Lightning at Avalanche Sat, Oct 24 | COL 44.5% · TBL 55.5% | COL 6–TBL 3 | Miss |
| Ducks at Flyers Sat, Oct 24 | PHI 62.6% · ANA 37.4% | PHI 4–ANA 5 | Miss |
| Kings at Devils Sat, Oct 24 | NJD 69.9% · LAK 30.1% | NJD 3–LAK 1 | Hit |
| Golden Knights at Blue Jackets Sat, Oct 24 | CBJ 58.8% · VGK 41.2% | CBJ 2–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blues Sat, Oct 24 | STL 43.3% · CAR 56.7% | STL 0–CAR 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Oilers Sat, Oct 24 | EDM 64.9% · TOR 35.1% | EDM 2–TOR 7 | Miss |
| Predators at Penguins Sat, Oct 24 | PIT 46.4% · NSH 53.6% | PIT 3–NSH 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Senators Sat, Oct 24 | OTT 70.2% · NYR 29.8% | OTT 7–NYR 4 | Hit |
| Sabres at Capitals Sat, Oct 24 | WSH 72.5% · BUF 27.5% | WSH 4–BUF 3 | Hit |
| Sharks at Bruins Sat, Oct 24 | BOS 74.6% · SJS 25.4% | BOS 6–SJS 4 | Hit |
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.