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Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHLregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Oilers logo
Oilers
Edmonton
0
vs
Maple Leafs logo
Maple Leafs
Toronto
0
EDM 65%35% TOR
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Edmonton Oilers 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Oilers:

  • Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 5-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road
  • Injuries. Oilers healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
  • Recent Form. Oilers (8-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (6-4)

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VenueRogers Place
Edmonton, AB

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Maple Leafs (away)
Oilers (home)
35%
Win probability
65%
0
High-impact factors
0
10
Players ruled out
8

Game Preview

Maple Leafs at Oilers

The Maple Leafs visit the Oilers at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Oilers a 65% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Maple Leafs to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Home Field Advantage favors the Oilers (medium): Oilers are 5-2 at home this season; Maple Leafs are 3-3 on the road
  • Injuries favors the Oilers (low): Oilers healthier: 8 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 10 out, 0 doubtful
  • Recent Form favors the Oilers (low): Oilers (8-1) in better form than Maple Leafs (6-4)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Oilers have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Maple Leafs have 10.
Oilers65%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors EDM

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
  • InjuriesFavors Edmonton Oilers
  • Recent FormFavors Edmonton Oilers
  • ELO RatingFavors Edmonton Oilers
  • Rest DaysFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

TOR
EDM
Home Field Advantage
Injuries
Recent Form
ELO Rating
Rest Days
Favours TOR|Favours EDM

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Understanding the win probability calculation

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 3:00:20 AM

Oilers

Mattias JanmarkC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Jason DickinsonC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Matt SavoieC(Lower Body)
OUT
Alec RegulaD(Undisclosed)
OUT
Atro LeppanenD(Undisclosed)
OUT
Mattias EkholmD(Undisclosed)
OUT
Frederik AndersenG(Knee)
OUT
Devon LeviG(Undisclosed)
OUT

Maple Leafs

Dakota JoshuaC(Abdomen)
OUT
Max DomiC(Back)
OUT
John TavaresC(Lower Body)
OUT
Nick BlankenburgD(Upper Body)
OUT
Marshall RifaiD(Lower Body)
OUT
Chris TanevD(Upper Body)
OUT
Cade WebberD(Elbow)
OUT
William VilleneuveD(Knee)
OUT
Elvis MerzlikinsG(Shoulder)
OUT
Miles WoodLW(Undisclosed)
OUT

Key Players

Maple Leafs

Anthony StolarzG
Sergei BobrovskyG
Artur AkhtyamovG
Bo GroulxC
Auston MatthewsC

Oilers

Devon LeviGOUT
-8.4% win prob impact
Frederik AndersenGOUT
-8.4% win prob impact
Tristan JarryG
Josh SamanskiC
Colton DachC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Oilers has a 65% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.

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