New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Rangers 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rangers:
- Injuries. Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
- ELO Rating. Maple Leafs ELO 1473 vs Rangers ELO 1528 (diff: -55)
- Recent Form. Rangers (7-3) in better form than Maple Leafs (5-4)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Rangers 5-4.
Our model predicted the Rangers would win with 61% confidence, but the Maple Leafs pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Rangers and was a major factor: Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 4-5 at home this season; Rangers are 2-5 on the road
- ELO Rating favored the Rangers and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs ELO 1473 vs Rangers ELO 1528 (diff: -55)
- The Maple Leafs are without 9 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors New York Rangers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- ELO RatingFavors New York Rangers
- Recent FormFavors New York Rangers
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Rangers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Maple Leafs
Rangers
No injuries reported
Key Players
Rangers
No player data available
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 39% win probability, while Rangers has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.