San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 51% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 5-2 at home this season; Sharks are 4-4 on the road
- ELO Rating. Senators ELO 1517 vs Sharks ELO 1446 (diff: +71)
- Recent Form. Senators (7-3) in better form than Sharks (5-4)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Sharks defeated the Senators 6-2.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 51% confidence, but the Sharks pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Sharks and was a major factor: Sharks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Senators (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 5-2 at home this season; Sharks are 4-4 on the road
- Injuries favored the Sharks and was a contributing factor: Sharks healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Sharks have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Sharks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors San Jose Sharks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- InjuriesFavors San Jose Sharks
- ELO RatingFavors Ottawa Senators
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Senators
Sharks
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Sharks rest advantage (2 days rest) over Senators (back-to-back)
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Senators
Sharks
Key Players
Sharks
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 51% win probability, while Sharks has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.