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Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

NHLregular • 2026-27 Season
completed
Senators logo
Senators
Ottawa
5
vs
Panthers logo
Panthers
Florida
1
OTT 66%34% FLA
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Ottawa Senators 66% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:

  • Injuries. Senators healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 4 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage. Senators are 4-2 at home this season; Panthers are 4-4 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
  • Recent Form. Senators (6-3) in better form than Panthers (5-2)

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VenueCanadian Tire Centre
Ottawa, ON

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Panthers (away)
Senators (home)
34%
Win probability
66%
0
High-impact factors
1
4
Players ruled out
3

Post-Game Analysis

How our model performed

The Senators defeated the Panthers 5-1.

Our model predicted the Senators would win with 66% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.

Looking at the factors our model weighed:

  • Injuries favored the Senators and was a major factor: Senators healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 4 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 4-2 at home this season; Panthers are 4-4 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
  • Recent Form favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators (6-3) in better form than Panthers (5-2)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Panthers have 4.

This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.

Senators won 5-1

Senators won by a solid margin

Prediction CorrectWe predicted Senators at 66%

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Ottawa Senators
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
  • Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
  • Rest DaysNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

FLA
OTT
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
ELO Rating
Favours FLA|Favours OTT

Premium feature: factor breakdown

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Senators

Our Model66%

Panthers

Our Model34%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Senators healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Panthers 4 out, 0 doubtful

Senators
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/21/2026, 11:15:03 PM

Senators

Thomas ChabotD(Upper Body)
OUT
William EklundLW(Ankle)
OUT
Kurtis MacDermidLW(Upper Body)
OUT

Panthers

Aleksander BarkovC(Lower Body)
OUT
Jacob MarkstromG(Upper Body)
OUT
Jonah GadjovichLW(Upper Body)
OUT
Brad MarchandLW(Leg)
OUT

Key Players

Panthers

Jacob MarkstromGOUT
-8.2% win prob impact
Akira SchmidG
Sam BennettC
Anton LundellC
Eetu LuostarinenC

Senators

Linus UllmarkG
Samuel ErssonG
Ridly GreigC
Tim StutzleC
Stephen HallidayC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Frequently Asked Questions

Senators has a 66% win probability, while Panthers has a 34% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.

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