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Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHLregular • 2026-27 Season
Live
Avalanche logo
Avalanche
Colorado
4
vs
Lightning logo
Lightning
Tampa Bay
1
COL 45%56% TBL
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Tampa Bay Lightning 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Lightning:

  • Injuries. Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 3 out, 0 doubtful
  • Recent Form. Lightning (7-2) in better form than Avalanche (5-4)

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VenueBall Arena
Denver, CO

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Lightning (away)
Avalanche (home)
56%
Win probability
45%
1
High-impact factors
0
1
Players ruled out
3

Game Preview

Lightning at Avalanche

The Lightning visit the Avalanche at Ball Arena in Denver, CO in 2027-2028 NHL regular play.

Our model gives the Lightning a 56% chance of winning, making this a competitive contest. For the Avalanche to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Injuries favors the Lightning (high): Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 3 out, 0 doubtful
  • Home Field Advantage favors the Avalanche (medium): Avalanche are 5-2 at home this season; Lightning are 3-3 on the road
  • Recent Form favors the Lightning (low): Lightning (7-2) in better form than Avalanche (5-4)
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Avalanche have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Lightning have 1.
Lightning56%

is favored to win

Key Factor
Injuries
Favors TBL

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Colorado Avalanche
  • Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
  • Rest DaysNeutral
  • ELO RatingNeutral
  • Head to HeadNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

TBL
COL
Injuries
Home Field Advantage
Recent Form
Rest Days
ELO Rating
Favours TBL|Favours COL

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Avalanche

Our Model45%

Lightning

Our Model56%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Injuries

Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Avalanche 3 out, 0 doubtful

Lightning
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 12:45:01 AM

Avalanche

Nicolas RoyC(Lower Body)
OUT
Georgii MerkulovC(Undisclosed)
OUT
Zachary L'HeureuxLW(Upper Body)
OUT

Lightning

Yanni GourdeC(Hip)
OUT

Key Players

Lightning

Dennis HildebyG
Andrei VasilevskiyG
Yanni GourdeCOUT
-3.6% win prob impact
Zemgus GirgensonsC
Gage GoncalvesC

Avalanche

Mackenzie BlackwoodG
Scott WedgewoodG
Trent MinerG
Nathan MacKinnonC
Nazem KadriC

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NHL Win Probability

How we calculate NHL game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Avalanche has a 45% win probability, while Lightning has a 56% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.

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