NHL2026-27 season
Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Head-to-head win probability for NHL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sat, Apr 11, 2026
This season
2026-27 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
No 2026-27 meetings yet.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
—
No decided games this season
Meetings graded
0
2026-27
Correct calls
0
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Boston Bruins
- Home Field Advantage — Bruins are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days — Bruins rest advantage (3 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive Efficiency — Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Bruins (3.1 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form — Lightning (38-18) in better form than Bruins (34-22)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.