Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Bruins:
- Home Field Advantage. Bruins are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days. Bruins rest advantage (3 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 51% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: BOS 53% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: BOS 57% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: BOS 56% (+1)
Win probability movement
BOS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Bruins 2-1.
Our model predicted the Bruins would win with 55% confidence, but the Lightning won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bruins and was a notable factor: Bruins are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days favored the Bruins and was a contributing factor: Bruins rest advantage (3 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Bruins (3.1 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Bruins
- Rest DaysFavors Boston Bruins
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Bruins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bruins has a 55% win probability, while Lightning has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.