San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs
San Jose Sharks 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Sharks:
- Injuries. Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Recent Form. Sharks (4-3) in better form than Maple Leafs (3-4)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Sharks 3-1.
Our model predicted the Sharks would win with 60% confidence, but the Maple Leafs pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Sharks and was a major factor: Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs are 3-5 at home this season; Sharks are 3-3 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Sharks and was a contributing factor: Sharks (4-3) in better form than Maple Leafs (3-4)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Sharks have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors San Jose Sharks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Recent FormFavors San Jose Sharks
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Sharks healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Maple Leafs
Sharks
Key Players
Sharks
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 40% win probability, while Sharks has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.