New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
New York Islanders 57% to win. The biggest signal favoring Islanders:
- Injuries. Islanders healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 4-1.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Islanders and was a major factor: Islanders healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 3-4 at home this season; Islanders are 1-4 on the road
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Maple Leafs (3-3) vs Islanders (3-3)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 8 player(s) ruled out, while the Islanders have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors New York Islanders
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Islanders healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Maple Leafs 8 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Injury Report
Maple Leafs
Islanders
Key Players
Islanders
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 43% win probability, while Islanders has a 57% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.