New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 3-2 at home this season; Islanders are 1-3 on the road
- Recent Form. Senators (5-2) in better form than Islanders (3-3)
- ELO Rating. Senators ELO 1512 vs Islanders ELO 1460 (diff: +51)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Islanders 2-1.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Islanders healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Senators 4 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 3-2 at home this season; Islanders are 1-3 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators (5-2) in better form than Islanders (3-3)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 4 player(s) ruled out, while the Islanders have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors New York Islanders
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- ELO RatingFavors Ottawa Senators
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Senators
Islanders
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Islanders
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 54% win probability, while Islanders has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.