St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 3-1 at home this season; Blues are 1-4 on the road
- Recent Form. Senators (5-1) in better form than Blues (2-2)
- Injuries. Senators less affected by injuries: 6 out, 0 doubtful vs Blues 6 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Blues players matter more
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Blues defeated the Senators 7-2.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 63% confidence, but the Blues pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 3-1 at home this season; Blues are 1-4 on the road
- Recent Form favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators (5-1) in better form than Blues (2-2)
- Rest Days favored the Blues and was a contributing factor: Blues rest advantage (3 days rest) over Senators (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Senators have 6 player(s) ruled out, while the Blues have 6.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Blues won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- Recent FormFavors Ottawa Senators
- Rest DaysFavors St. Louis Blues
- InjuriesFavors Ottawa Senators
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Senators
Blues
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Blues
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 63% win probability, while Blues has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.