Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Injuries. Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Kraken 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 4-1 at home this season; Kraken are 5-2 on the road
- ELO Rating. Lightning ELO 1525 vs Kraken ELO 1497 (diff: +28)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Kraken 4-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 63% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Lightning and was a major factor: Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Kraken 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning are 4-1 at home this season; Kraken are 5-2 on the road
- Rest Days favored the Kraken and was a contributing factor: Kraken rest advantage (2 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Lightning have 1 player(s) ruled out, while the Kraken have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Rest DaysFavors Seattle Kraken
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Seattle Kraken
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Lightning
Kraken
Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
Injuries
Lightning healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Kraken 3 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Kraken
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 63% win probability, while Kraken has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.