Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Maple Leafs:
- Home Field Advantage. Maple Leafs are 3-3 at home this season; Sabres are 0-4 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Injuries. Maple Leafs less affected by injuries: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 7 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Sabres players matter more
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Sabres defeated the Maple Leafs 5-4.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 57% confidence, but the Sabres pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 3-3 at home this season; Sabres are 0-4 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Injuries favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Maple Leafs less affected by injuries: 7 out, 0 doubtful vs Sabres 7 out, 0 doubtful, but the missing Sabres players ...
- Rest Days favored the Sabres and was a contributing factor: Sabres rest advantage (2 days rest) over Maple Leafs (1 day rest)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Maple Leafs have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Sabres have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Sabres won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- InjuriesFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Rest DaysFavors Buffalo Sabres
- ELO RatingFavors Buffalo Sabres
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
Key Players
Sabres
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 57% win probability, while Sabres has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.